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GSL 2021 Week 18

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Post  Austin Snelick Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:02 am

As we approach the final two weeks of the season, there's still a lot of meaningful games left to be played, with 10 of this weekends 12 games having at least one team still playing for something, either for playoff seeding, or a playoff spot.

In the Eastern Conference 7 teams still have a path to make the playoffs, while in the Western Conference, the 5 playoff teams all have a shot at the #1 seed.

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville 6/17 8:15PM
Week 18 begins tonight with Cincinnati traveling to Jacksonville. The Knights are locked into the 4 seed, but their coach is keeping all starters in for this game, to prepare them for the playoffs, and keep his players focused. This does not bode well for the Captains, as a full strength Cincinnati team is a tough matchup. A win for the Knights means the Lightning will lock up the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference before their game Sunday.
CIN -7
o/u 33

Arizona @ Albuquerque 6/20 12:00PM *** Game time moved due to expected excessive heat ***
A tough divisional road matchup for the Eagles, as they try to keep pace with the Cabras. The Atoms may be eliminated from playoff contention, but this team fights every week, so expect a good game here.
ARZ -2
o/u 48

Norfolk @ Washington 6/20 1:00PM
The Commanders have clinched the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference, and will now give their players a rest. Norfolk had won 10 straight, and clinched the division before their loss last week. The starters are getting a much needed break, and the backups are going to get much needed playing time over the next two weeks. For the Stars, it's a much different story. A playoff spot is on the line, and they need the win at home this weekend, to set up a week 19 showdown to decide the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. No rest for Washington as they are looking for a strong finish to the season.
WAS -8
o/u 38

Toronto @ Louisville 6/20 1:00PM
This is another game with big playoff implications. A Jacksonville loss combined with a Louisville win will give the Lightning the division crown. A loss for Toronto will mean their elimination from the playoffs. This evenly matched game should be a good one for the fans in Louisville, as it's expected to be a tight game, with lots of offense.
LSV -0.5
o/u 65.5

Pennsylvania @ Louisiana 6/20 1:00PM
Nothing for either team to play for here. The Keystones are resting the offense this week, but even so, the talent on this team runs deep. The Keystones are still expected to come out of this one with a big win.
PEN -17
o/u 43

Los Angeles @ Memphis 6/20 1:00PM
The loss for Memphis last week really hurt them, as they fell from the #1 to the #3 seed in the Western Conference. Despite the loss, they have the easiest remaining schedule out of the playoff bound teams in the Western Conference, so the #1 seed is a very achievable goal, if Oakland and Colorado lose a game.
MEM -20.5
o/u 50.5

Las Vegas @ Colorado 6/20 4:30PM
The Cabras have been an interesting team all year. The odds mean nothing to them, as they are always beating them. They've won three big games in big upsets against some of the best teams the Western Conference have to offer. This week at home, they face a divisional opponent that has been playing hard the past several weeks, despite playoff elimination. They will need this one to take a step closer to the division title.
COL -3
o/u 48

Wisconsin @ Atlanta 6/20 4:30PM
The Stags are at the back end of the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference. They've been a good team, but luck hasn't fallen their way this season. They will need some help to make the playoffs, but first, they need to beat the Flying Fleet, which should be a manageable task.
WIS -9.5
o/u 40.5

San Diego @ San Antonio 6/20 4:30PM
A couple weeks ago, it looked like the Texans were in jeprody of losing their wild card spot, but after 3 solid wins, they find themselves with an outside chance at the #1 seed. In all likelihood though, because a Memphis win means the Comets win the division, the Texans are playing for a home game in the wild card round, which isn't out of the question. Having beaten both Arizona and Colorado, if the Texans finish with the same record as the second place West division team, the Texans will host the Wild Card game as the #4 seed, and that home field advantage will be huge.
SA -13
o/u 63

Seattle @ Dallas 6/20 4:30PM
This game means nothing for the playoffs, but it means something to these teams. Dallas fans are some of the best in the league, coming out in strong numbers despite their teams poor performance. Expect the Diesel to play tough at home in this one.
SEA -2
58

Miami @ Baltimore 6/20 8:15PM
The Sunday night game has a lot riding on it, and not just for the two teams playing in this one. Miami can put themselves in a good spot in playoff positioning if they can win this one. Many teams looking for a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference will be looking for Baltimore to lose this one, which could be a big ask, as Baltimore is as hot a team as any coming down the stretch, having won 6 of 8, and against top tier opponents. Their loss last week really hurt them though, keeping them back with the pack. This will be a huge Sunday night matchup, for many teams in the Eastern Conference, with a playoff atmosphere.
BAL -5.5
o/u 40.5

Oakland @ St. Louis
Week 18 concludes with the final Monday night game of the season, with the Icons hoping to maintain their #1 seed as they take on the Brewers. With Memphis having an easy schedule, and expected to win out, this game becomes a must win for Oakland, as they will need to win out as well to hold onto the #1 seed in the Western Conference, and that home field advantage will mean a lot in the playoffs. The Brewers in the other hand would love to play spoiler.
OAK -2
o/u 63


Last edited by Austin Snelick on Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:28 am; edited 1 time in total
Austin Snelick
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Post  Austin Snelick Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:04 am

And, here's a reminder on the playoff clinching scenarios.

Week 18 Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Eastern Conference
Louisville can clinch the South division and 3 seed with a win and a Jacksonville loss
Baltimore can clinch a Wild Card spot and the 5 seed with a win and losses by Washington, Toronto, and Wisconsin

Western Conference
Oakland can clinch the 1 seed with a win and losses by Memphis and Arizona
Colorado can clinch the West division with a win and an Arizona loss
Memphis can clinch the Central division with a win or San Antonio loss



Paths to the Playoffs for Eastern Conference Teams

Louisville
1. Win vs Toronto in week 18 combined with Jacksonville loss in week 18
2. Win vs Jacksonville in week 19

Baltimore
1. Win vs Miami in week 18, and win vs Washington in week 19
2. Win one game combined with at least one loss by Miami, Washington, Toronto, and Wisconsin in weeks 18 and 19

Washington
1. Win vs Norfolk in week 18, win @ Baltimore in week 19
2. Win @ Baltimore in week 19, combined with Baltimore loss in week 18 and at least one loss by Miami, Toronto, and Wisconsin in weeks 18 and 19

Miami
1. Win @ Baltimore in week 18, win vs Norfolk in week 19, combined with at least one Washington loss in week 18 or 19

Toronto
1. Win @ Louisville in week 18, win vs Wisconsin in week 19, combined with at least one loss by Baltimore, Washington, and Miami in weeks 18 and 19

Wisconsin
1. Win @ Atlanta in week 18, win @ Toronto in week 19, combined with at least one loss by Baltimore, Washington, and Miami in weeks 18 and 19
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Post  NeauXone Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:31 am

We actually need a Knights win plus a win of our own to clinch, so no matter what we're playing for for something this week.
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Post  Austin Snelick Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:25 am

NeauXone wrote:We actually need a Knights win plus a win of our own to clinch, so no matter what we're playing for for something this week.

Right, that's correct. I should have read my own reminder about playoff clinching scenarios haha
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Post  Austin Snelick Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:13 am

With the Knights win over the Captains last night, the Louisville Lightning can win the division with a victory over the Toronto Terror on Sunday. The Lightning will be half point favorites in the GSL Game of the week, which could very well turn out to be the best game of the weekend, with two teams fighting hard for a playoff spot, and with this expected to be a high scoring game.
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Post  Austin Snelick Sun Jun 20, 2021 6:54 pm

Somehow I've still got the two games in one game at once problem.

The "real game", or the game who's final score I'll take is the game which the current score is 21-26 San Antonio in the 4th.
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Post  Austin Snelick Mon Jun 21, 2021 1:33 pm

After yesterday's games, three more teams have been eliminated, while several teams have moved around in the standings.

Playoff Bracket Currently (full sized image link: https://i.imgur.com/cj8UjR2.png)
GSL 2021 Week 18 RtPB6Qc

Starting in the Eastern Conference, the Louisville Lightning clinched the South division with a win over the Toronto Terror. They are officially locked into the #3 seed, and will head to Norfolk in the Divisional Round.

Louisville's win eliminated two teams. First, they eliminated the Jacksonville Captains, who's only chance at a playoff spot was winning the South division.

The Lightning beating the Terror, combined with other events Sunday, resulted in the Terror being eliminated from playoff contention. With Baltimore and Washington playing each other, a Baltimore win, means they finish ahead of Toronto. A Washington win, still would place Washington ahead of Toronto, via head to head tie breaker.

Washington was also eliminated from playoff contention Sunday. Their best record would be (9-9). If all remaining East Division teams finish (9-9), Washington would lead the remaining East Division teams. However, Wisconsin has the head to head tie breaker against Washington, therefore, will finish ahead of Washington, regardless if the Stags win or lose Sunday.

Miami, on a four game win streak, has now moved into the Eastern Conference's #5 seed, as they are ahead of Baltimore in division record, and have the head to head tie breaker over Wisconsin. Miami now controls their own destiny for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference.

In the Western Conference, Oakland remains in the #1 seed, as they have yet to play. A loss would move them back to the #3 seed, based on conference record, while a win keeps them at the #1 seed.

Arizona moves up to the division lead with the Colorado loss, and is ahead of Memphis, based on head to head.

San Antonio moves up to the #4 seed, based on head to head with Colorado, therefore leaving Colorado at the #5 seed.
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Post  rbronish Mon Jun 21, 2021 3:04 pm

CMIIW, But wouldn't a 5-way 9-9 tie in the East have Toronto over Wisconsin, Washington over Miami and Baltimore then Washington over Toronto?
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Post  Untitled0717 Mon Jun 21, 2021 4:07 pm

These would be the tiebreakers in a potential 5-way tie:

Week 19 - Toronto defeats Wisconsin, Washington defeats Baltimore, Norfolk defeats Miami

Baltimore - None

Miami - Baltimore (Division Record), Toronto (Week 17), Wisconsin (Week 15)

Toronto - Baltimore (Week 2), Wisconsin (Week 1/19)

Washington - Baltimore (Week 3/19), Miami (Week 11/14), Toronto (Week 8)

Wisconsin - Baltimore (Week 17), Washington (Week 2)

In this scenario, the east division would be WAS over MIA over BAL; Toronto would go between Miami and Baltimore, but what about Wisconsin? As Austin said, Wisconsin would be ahead of Washington, but they would also technically be behind Miami and Toronto. Maybe I'm overcomplicating this.
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Post  sfcom1 Mon Jun 21, 2021 6:59 pm

Untitled0717 wrote:These would be the tiebreakers in a potential 5-way tie:

Week 19 - Toronto defeats Wisconsin, Washington defeats Baltimore, Norfolk defeats Miami

Baltimore - None

Miami - Baltimore (Division Record), Toronto (Week 17), Wisconsin (Week 15)

Toronto - Baltimore (Week 2), Wisconsin (Week 1/19)

Washington - Baltimore (Week 3/19), Miami (Week 11/14), Toronto (Week Cool

Wisconsin - Baltimore (Week 17), Washington (Week 2)

In this scenario, the east division would be WAS over MIA over BAL; Toronto would go between Miami and Baltimore, but what about Wisconsin? As Austin said, Wisconsin would be ahead of Washington, but they would also technically be behind Miami and Toronto. Maybe I'm overcomplicating this.

Oh man, that is worse than Temporal Mechanics (Which I forgot to study while I was in the Academy! And always gives me a headache)
Easiest senario: Miami win....No Headache!
Miami loss.... Pass out the Advil to everyone! It will be a long night! lol

John
Sfcom1 (Tee Hee Hee. I just love seeing chaos theory at work! Especially since it is "MY" Team causing it!) :-D
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Post  rbronish Mon Jun 21, 2021 8:05 pm

I made this chart that might help...
GSL 2021 Week 18 Captur10
I've run the scenarios 14 million times, and Washington gets in once. They do it by using Toronto as a shield against Wisconsin.
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Post  Austin Snelick Tue Jun 22, 2021 7:04 am

Oh, yes, you're correct.

If Washington is in a tie at (9-9), and there are no teams better than (9-9), Washington will have the best conference record, and would be the Wild Card team.
I had overlooked the conference record.


Also, big choke by Oakland last night. Was hoping to see them up in the race for #1 seed, so their game next week was a little bigger.
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