GSL Power Rankings Thread - 2021

[NeauXone]

I'm going to try to compile a power rankings list for each week. I try to base it off of margin of victory as well as points scored and points allowed, which ends up ranking the teams by overall win/loss quality. I'd take this week's rankings with a grain of salt since it's only week 1, I think the rankings will improve as time goes on.

[Austin Snelick]

I was hoping someone would put a power rankings together. I figured I shouldn’t, since I know each teams actual rankings, and I don’t want to give that info out.

I do have an interesting perspective though. I can tell you that there’s a couple teams quite low on this list, that really should be ranked much higher, and some teams higher in the list, that should be lower. Of course, it’s hard to know that after 1 week, but some good teams got beat by some very good teams.

[NeauXone]

I do have an interesting perspective though. I can tell you that there’s a couple teams quite low on this list, that really should be ranked much higher, and some teams higher in the list, that should be lower. Of course, it’s hard to know that after 1 week, but some good teams got beat by some very good teams.

That's exactly what I was hoping for. It captures the nature of NFL power rankings perfectly, because whichever team you're referencing will go from super low in the rankings now, to high up later on.
I was also hoping someone else would come out with power rankings because usually there's a bunch of different media outlets that put out their own ranking every week (some of which having very different rankings compared to the others).

[rbronish]

Here's my power rankings. I used what the NCAA Selection Committee would call an eye test

[NeauXone]

Here's my power rankings. I used what the NCAA Selection Committee would call an eye test

I like this format more than mine, didn't have much time to put mine together. I also think that what we can do is if we have enough people contributing to the rankings, we can average out the rankings to see where a team is generally ranked at.

[92Mafia]

92Mafia's Way Too Early Power Rankings

Gridiron Bowl:

1 (Best of West). Washington Stars
Murdered the Royals in their home opener, momentum from last year has carried over.

2 (Beast of East). Memphis Comets
Broke the defending Gridiron Bowl runners-up on their home soil.

Playoff Contender:

3. Baltimore Bluebirds
Winning that convincingly in the terrible winter Baltimore wind deserves a spot.

4. Colorado Cabras
Solid victory on the road, score did not tell the whole story as they dominated most of the game.

5. Pennsylvania Keystones
Still split if MNF game was more a Keystones win or a Knights loss, great win nonetheless.

6. Seattle Sockeyes
Not the margin of victory win some will be looking for, but defeating the defending champs in the Seattle cold is worth a high rating.

7. Louisville Lightning
Two score win at Miami earns Louisville this spot.

8. Norfolk Commanders
Norfolk wins the Navy Bowl,

9. San Diego Breakers
A modest victory, but still puts them in the picture.

10. Arizona Eagles
A solid win, but considering how awful the Oakland D is, and how many opportunities they got, they could've put more on.

Fringe Contender:

11. Toronto Terror
Best shot at breaking into playoff picture.

12. San Antonio Texans
Exciting OT win on the road, need to work on the defense though.

13. Dallas Diesel
Disappointing finish to an amazing offensive performance.

14. Wisconsin Stags
Tough loss, but 31 points is nothing to scoff at.

15. Las Vegas Outlaws
I'll give the defending champs a pass, they never had to play in such a hostile environment last year.

16. Albuquerque Atoms
That missed 4th quarter extra point ended up making the difference as they couldn't keep up with San Diego.

17. Jacksonville Captains
Lost the Navy bowl, but still look like a potential contender.

Early Warning Signs:

18. Miami Sol
Couldn't take full advantage of pleasant Miami winter, giving up 6 scoring drives a red flag.

19. Atlanta Flying Fleet
Chalk the two missed FGs to the Baltimore winds, but even if they were successful it couldn't stop the Bluebirds from trampling them

20. Los Angeles Express
Looked really solid in fourth quarter, sadly by that time it was far too late

21. St. Louis Brewers
Call it a hangover, but there is no reason why the Gridiron Bowl runners-up should get obliterated on both sides of the ball.

Tanking:

23. Cincinnati Knights
Choked under the bright MNF lights, couldn't finish off any drives.

23. Oakland Icons
5 Turnovers?! The so called "killer offense" Oakland created couldn't gain more than 30 yards in a drive, and only scored on a garbage time pick-6.

24. Louisville Royals
Their offensive performance was somehow uglier than FedEx field.

[Austin Snelick]

Posting a purely statistical power rankings.

This list does not know what team strengths are, only game information and performance.

Column breakdown:

LINE: I took the "betting lines" from each game, and ranked teams by how big of a favorite they were in their game.
N LINE: This value is ranked on what the betting line would have been, if the game was played at a neutral site. This gives a better ration of which team is better head to head.
PF: Points for.
PA: Points against.
W DIF: This is the point differential against the spread. So a team that won a game, could have a negative W DIF, if they won by less points than expected.
DIF: Point differential.
W/L +/-: Difference between a teams number of wins and losses.

I took the average of the ranks for all teams, and this game me a team grade. The lower the grade number, the higher the rank.

I can say, even with this statistical approach, we will see some teams make some big moves up and down over the coming weeks, until true rankings become more clear.



From week to week, I'm going to do an ongoing average, so next week, the results of both weeks 1 and 2 will factor into the rankings.

[rbronish]

I put all 4 of our rankings together and averaged them out and I had a few observations.

Everyone thinks Washington is going to dominate the league and Louisiana is, well, not. This can all come from the Stars handing the Royals an "L" sandwich on a sliver platter, so one or both of these conclusions can be false. Let me give you a couple IRL examples from this past NFL season...
Kansas City beat the Jets 35-9 in week 8 (Good vs Bad)
Pittsburgh beat Jacksonville 27-3 in week 11 (Mediocre vs Bad)
Tampa Bay beat Green Bay 38-10 in week 6 (Good vs Good)
In each scenario there is a similar score, but each matchup had different calibers of greatness.

Memphis appears to be the early favorite in the West.

92Mafia is not as impressed by Pennsylvania as the rest of us.

Louisville and San Antonio are ranked higher by NeauXone and myself respectively.

Norfolk and Dallas are almost constant at 9 and 13.

There's a huge difference of opinion from 4-8 and 14-23, which shows that nobody knows anything and Austin is peeking over his GM book taking it all in.

[Austin Snelick]

I put all 4 of our rankings together and averaged them out and I had a few observations.

Everyone thinks Washington is going to dominate the league and Louisiana is, well, not. This can all come from the Stars handing the Royals an "L" sandwich on a sliver platter, so one or both of these conclusions can be false. Let me give you a couple IRL examples from this past NFL season...
Kansas City beat the Jets 35-9 in week 8 (Good vs Bad)
Pittsburgh beat Jacksonville 27-3 in week 11 (Mediocre vs Bad)
Tampa Bay beat Green Bay 38-10 in week 6 (Good vs Good)
In each scenario there is a similar score, but each matchup had different calibers of greatness.

Memphis appears to be the early favorite in the West.

92Mafia is not as impressed by Pennsylvania as the rest of us.

Louisville and San Antonio are ranked higher by NeauXone and myself respectively.

Norfolk and Dallas are almost constant at 9 and 13.

There's a huge difference of opinion from 4-8 and 14-23, which shows that nobody knows anything and Austin is peeking over his GM book taking it all in.

Now that the "betting lines" for week 2 are out, I'm sure some of these rankings will only appear less clear. What will make this more interesting is team record. There's going to be some good teams with okay records, because they are in divisions of all good teams. Same with one division of all, mostly bad teams, that will seem better than they are, because their division is the NFC East of the GSL. It'll probably be a few weeks before things shape up.

[NeauXone]

Still some volatility but I'm getting a better sense of each team's strengths and weaknesses.

[Austin Snelick]

Snelick Index Week 2 Power Rankings

[rbronish]

[Austin Snelick]

Snelick index for week 3





No change at the top spot.
Memphis and Arizona flipped spots.
Seattle made a big move, going up 5 slots.
Toronto, despite being (3-0) is at 8, as they have been just squeaking by wins so far.
Oakland made a huge move up, jumping 8 spots, likely due to their offensive performance this week.
Baltimore and San Antonio fall a bit.
Albuquerque takes a 5 spot tumble with this weeks loss.
Dallas jumps a bit after their first win.
Not much other change near the bottom, with St. Louis remaining in last.

[rbronish]

[92Mafia]

Gridiron Bowl:

1. (Beast of the East) Toronto Terror (3-0)
I'm breaking convention with my #1 pick and choosing Toronto, but considering they're undefeated with a tougher strength of schedule than the higher ranked Keystones, I don't think its too much of a hot take.

2. (Best of the West) Arizona Eagles (3-0)
While they've certainly benefitted from an easy schedule, they've convincingly beat every team they've faced.

Conference Championship Contender:

3. Pennsylvania Keystones (3-0)
While they're not in the Championship tier yet, they'll lock it in with a win in Toronto.

4. Colorado Cabras (3-0)
They've been perfect so far, but now face a real challenge against the Oakland defense.

Playoff Competitors:

5. Washington Stars (2-1)
Solid rebound win against a strong but underachieving Bluebirds team.

6. Louisville Lightning (2-1)
Absolutely dominated the Breakers on Thursday Night Football, and were 1 point from being undefeated.

7. Oakland Icons (2-1)
Call me biased but the Oakland defense looks like the best in the GSL so far, their matchup against Colorado will be a true test of its might.

8. Memphis Stars (2-1)
Their point differential is a sign they could be much better than we think, Week 5 could be a treat if that's the case.

9. San Antonio Texans (2-1)
They NEED defense to keep up in the playoff race, their game against Toronto shows what happens when their offense can't bail them out.

10. Jacksonville Captains (2-1)
Their SNF win Vs. LA helped them right the ship after a slow start, and they could be in good shape with an easy road trip on the horizon.

"Competitive":

11. Seattle Sockeyes (2-1)
Sure they're a field goal away from being undefeated, but if you look at who they've beat (ATL and LV) you'd be surprised if they didn't win those.

12. Baltimore Bluebirds (1-2)
Another slightly biased take being a Ravens fan, but the nature of their losses (less than a TD away against 2 top teams) could be a sign the Birds are better than we think.

13. Wisconsin Stags (1-2)
Similar deal to the Birds, but with close loss @Dallas knocking them down a few spots.

14. Dallas Diesel (1-2)
A complete wild card, similarly to their Texan neighbors they play ZERO defense yet rack up the score on offense which could put them in the playoffs or in contention for the first overall pick.

Bad Start:

15. Albuquerque Atoms (1-2)
They've kept it close in every game they've played, I'd give them more time before making a solid verdict.

16. Miami Sol (1-2)
While they haven't looked particularly solid so far, their close win @Norfolk could be a good momentum starter.

17. Norfolk Commanders (1-2)
While I can excuse losing to the Keystones, their Sol loss is a bit more worrying, they need to beat Louisville to stay alive in a competitive East Division.

18. Los Angeles Express (1-2)
While not particularly impressive thus far, all of the games leading up to their bye are a chance to prove they can be better than their slow start.

19. San Diego Breakers (1-2)
Their Defense has crashed and burned while they don't have either of the Texan teams' offenses to help carry them out.

Red Flags

20. Cincinnati Knights (1-2)
They've been absolutely wrecked by the top teams in the league to start the year, and only squeaked by a win against Miami, they need a statement win and FAST.

21. Louisiana Royals (1-2)
Similar story to the Knights, but with an even less convincing win Vs. Atlanta and allowing the Icons extremely young offense to score 35 in the Superdome.

22. St. Louis Brewers (0-3)
Call it awful luck playing 3 great teams or call it a worse hangover than your 21st birthday, but the Brewers have simply not been competitive in their first three games.

23. Las Vegas Outlaws (0-3)
They don't even get the excuse of strength of schedule, as they've lost by more to worse teams than the Brewers.

24. Atlanta Flying Fleet (0-3)
I didn't know the Air Force had tanks until I saw this team play, losing all three games to non-playoff competitors is a great way to earn the #1 overall pick

[NeauXone]

Week 3's Power Rankings:

[Austin Snelick]

Snelick index power rankings for week 4





Not much movement in the Snelick index rankings, likely due to how many teams are sitting at 2-2, and the top teams doing what they were expected to do.

The Dallas upset of Memphis surprisingly didn't effect the positions of either team.

The only movements were Oakland jumping up a couple slots as they move to 3-1. Toronto jumped up despite the loss. Those teams jumped up on Baltimore and Norfolk, who moved down. San Antonio and Louisville traded spots this week.

Interesting to me how this turned out. I figured there would be more movement. I think some of the other power rankings this week will be much more interesting.

[rbronish]

[92Mafia]

Gridiron Bowl:

1. (Best of the West) Arizona Eagles (4-0)
Not much more to say, they've been blowing up every team in their path so far. They face their biggest challenge so far next week with Washington coming to town.

2. (Beast of the East) Pennsylvania Keystones (4-0)
I'm finally hopping on the Keystones hype train after beating Toronto on the road. Their schedule for the next couple weeks will help us determine how dominant they are.

Deep Playoff Run:

3. Oakland Icons (3-1)
It wasn't a sexy win, but they got the job done against a talented Cabras team. The offense seams to slowly be catching up to the brick wall of a defense they have.

4. San Antonio Texans (3-1)
The exact opposite of the Icons, San Antonio's electrifying offense has helped carry this team. My only concern with this team is the weakness of their schedule so far.

5. Colorado Cabras (3-1)
While they lost, they kept it very close and were a late 4th quarter FG from possibly staying undefeated. I'm excited for how they respond against Norfolk.

6. Toronto Terror (3-1)
Another close loss against a top team, Toronto has nothing to worry about. They also have a pretty easy streak of games coming up.

7. Washington Stars (3-1)
By far the best defensive team in the league so far. The only thing stopping them is a true statement win, which could come in any of the next 3 weeks.

Wild Cards:

8. Baltimore Bluebirds (2-2)
Earned a true statement win against the Lightning, obliterating them with a flurry of touchdowns in the 2nd quarter. The only thing stopping them is just how competitive the East Division is.

9. Memphis Comets (2-2)
They suffered a tough upset loss against Dallas, but I have a weird hunch that they're better than they've let on. We'll see how legit they are when they play Pennsylvania this Sunday.

10. Louisville Lightning (2-2)
I'm so split on this team. On one hand they got obliterated by Baltimore, but on the other hand their wins were both legit. I need more time to see.

Competitive:

11. Dallas Diesel (2-2)
Returned to .500 after an impressive upset win against Memphis. They don't exactly have an easy schedule ahead of them, but this gives them a prime opportunity to prove themselves.

12. Miami Sol (2-2)
A nice bounce back win to get to .500. They're another team that is extremely hard to gauge, but we should see after a couple more weeks.

13. Norfolk Commanders (2-2)
Absolutely destroyed the Royals on TNF, boosting their rankings. Another team that could go in any direction right now.

14. Seattle Sockeyes (2-2)
They've beat the worst teams and lost close to the best ones, making it hard to accurately judge them. Give them a couple weeks and we'll see.

15. Wisconsin Stags (2-2)
They're in the playoff picture for some reason, whether or not they deserve it will be determined.

16. Los Angeles Express (2-2)
While their comeback win was awesome, it wasn't exactly calming any doubts I had about this team. Their division is too tough to take these unnecessary risks.

Extremely Suspect:

17. Jacksonville Captains (2-2)
The definition of failing upwards by somehow getting into the playoff picture after losing the Florida Bowl by 14. They need to prove they deserve this spot.

18. San Diego Breakers (2-2)
Won a too close shootout against one of the worst teams in the league. They need to fix their problems and fast before they play Oakland on MNF.

19. Albuquerque Atoms (1-3)
The Carolina Panthers of the GSL, they haven't won a lot but have kept it close against some solid teams. Now stop choking and you could actually make a run.

Red Flags:

20. Cincinnati Knights (1-3)
They're not as awful as the teams below them but they NEED to make something happen before the season is lost.

21. Louisiana Royals (1-3)
They've been a punching bag so far. They sadly don't play Atlanta 18 times a year.

22. St. Louis Brewers (0-4)
Strength of schedule tells me they've gotten supremely unlucky to start the season, but they need to show a pulse and fast.

23. Las Vegas Outlaws (0-4)
Their defense has the stopping power of a Kleenex tissue, and they have two great teams ahead of them in the schedule.

24. Atlanta Flying Fleet (0-4)
Put up three points on the biggest game of the week.

[rbronish]

I'm using a slightly different formula now (whoever was playing against LOU/ATL/STL seemed to take the top spots), so it should kind of plateau from here.

[NeauXone]

Sorry for not posting PRs last week. I'm going to try to get one up this week but I'm limited on time so I'm not sure if they'll be up.

[Untitled0717]

I'm think I'm going to start simulating the season and coming with up playoff probabilities for each team.

The simulation method mainly uses the betting lines to focus more on what teams can do rather than what they have done.
To me, this seems more practical, since the games are completely randomized and teams will likely converge toward their actual rankings (which can be somewhat inferred with the betting lines) as the season progresses.

[Austin Snelick]

At the end of the year, I'll have to reveal the team strengths from the start of the year, and the final strengths from the end of the year. Some team rankings would probably be surprising.

[92Mafia]

Gridiron Bowl:

1. (Best of the West) Arizona Eagles (5-0)
Solid win against a solid Washington defense, not much change for their Championship momentum.

2. (Beast of the East) Pennsylvania Keystones (4-0)
Just like the Eagles nothing has changed for them, however they stay below Arizona due to how close their win this week was.

Deep Playoff Run:

3. Oakland Icons (4-1)
Their second straight statement win, dominating the Breakers under the bright Monday Night lights. Catch them in Dallas on the Sportpuck Network next week!

4. Colorado Cabras (4-1)
A solid bounce back win in their amazing alternate uniforms helps keep them in the top Wild Card Spot.

5. Toronto Terror (4-1)
It wasn't against elite competition, but the Terror have bounced back nicely as predicted. I feel they're a dark horse Championship contender.

Wild Cards:

6. Seattle Sockeyes (3-2)
They made, in my opinion, the biggest statement of any team this week by obliterating the Express. They have a gauntlet of competitive games coming up, so we'll see how long they last here.

7. Louisville Lightning (3-2)
The Wild Card tier as a whole has been more and more murky as to where these teams could end up, and Louisville is a prime example as such. I still need that statement win from them.

8. Washington Stars (3-2)
Lost to the best team in the league so far, so I wont drop them too far. Them having 56 points against while most have double is a great sign.

Competitive:

9. Wisconsin Stags (3-2)
They haven't won any big games, but staying in the playoff race win always help regardless of true team talent. Kudos to them for beating the Brewers at Miller Park.

10. Memphis Comets (2-3)
I feel like they could be so much better than they let on with their record. They have a bunch of big games in the next couple weeks, so we'll see how they can adjust.

11. Dallas Diesel (2-3)
They lost close to a talented Toronto team, and I feel they're another team with plenty to prove as the season goes on. Huge matchup on the Sportpuck network against Oakland.

12. Cincinnati Knights (2-3)
Perhaps I've been too harsh on the Knights. While their record isn't anything special they've played some of the better teams to start off. I have a hunch the betting line is telling us something the score isn't.

Outside the Bubble:

13. San Antonio Texans (3-2)
If my hunch about the Knights is wrong, this is awful for the Texans as they lost handily to a not so good team on SNF. If my hunch about the Knights is right, this is awful for the Texans as they failed to prove themselves against a solid team on SNF.

14. Norfolk Commanders (2-3)
Their power rankings have been all over the place so far. They really need to prove themselves these next two weeks with two primetime division games in a row.

15. Albuquerque Atoms (2-3)
Finally got a win to regain a grip in the playoff race. They intrigue me, even if they are sadly trapped in the most competitive division in the GSL.

16. San Diego Breakers (2-2)
No idea which way they're trending, but the betting line tells me they should've been more competitive on Monday Night. A win in Memphis will be huge for them.

Suspect:

17. Miami Sol (2-3)
A perfectly even point differential and a mix of tough and easy upcoming opponents leaves me with no idea how to judge the Sol. Expect them to go all over the rankings for the next couple weeks.

18. Baltimore Bluebirds (2-3)
One week I'm praising them for dominating the Lightning, next week they lose in primetime to the winless Outlaws. Not the first time a Baltimore team has disappointed me.

19. Los Angeles Express (2-3)
Didn't exactly keep it close against the Sockeyes and have fallen out of the playoff race as a result. They need to fix their issues and fast, the LA market does not tolerate mediocrity.

Bottom Five:

20. Jacksonville Captains (2-3)
They looked really good for about three weeks. This freefall isn't a death sentence for them as their division is still a toss up, but they need to right the ship quickly.

21. Las Vegas Outlaws (1-4)
A big win for them! While it doesn't erase their four losses, sometimes all a team needs is a spark.

22. Atlanta Flying Fleet (0-4)
The team I was ruthlessly mean to finally won one! And in the process might have ruined their tank for the offensive playmaker they desperately need.

23. Louisiana Royals (1-4)
At least Louisiana is hosting the Gridiron Bowl.

22. St. Louis Brewers (0-5)
The GSL's newest frontrunner in the race for (insert top QB prospect here)! Keep up the good work!

Bonus:

25: Salt Lake Trappers (0-1)
They'll always stay in this spot for this season but I wanted to welcome them to the GSL!

[Drew Abernathy]

They maybe last but they're number one in your hearts!

And thanks for the welcome!

[Austin Snelick]

Little late, but here's the Snelick index power rankings for week 5





No change at the top two slots.
The biggest change was Seattle jumping way up to 3, I assume because of the big line, and win against Los Angeles.
Lot's of other movement up or down a spot or two.
Baltimore dropped 4 after their loss on the road.
Louisville went up 3 with their win, as did Wisconsin, and Albuquerque.
I think Cincinnati not moving at all was interesting, after they pulled off a good win, but they are at the bottom for points scored.

[Austin Snelick]

Snelick Index Week 6 Power Rankings





Seattle jumped down as expected. #3 was way too high for them.
Some other teams are beginning to make some moves.
Toronto jumped up 4with another good win, getting them to 5-1.
Memphis continues to slowly climb the ladder.
Cincinnati is also moving up, as they've won two in a row to get them to .500 on the season.

[Untitled0717]

[rbronish]

[NeauXone]

If Austin, 92, and Rob can handle to power rankings I think I'll move to dropping these every week...
If the playoffs started today:

[Austin Snelick]

If Austin, 92, and Rob can handle to power rankings I think I'll move to dropping these every week...
If the playoffs started today:

I like the layout here. It'll be interesting to see how this changes throughout the weeks.

I made an update to fix a minor problem in the GSL logo by the way, so here is the logo on what should be a transparent background (not sure if that translated well to imgur).


On a color background, the GSL logo always has a white outline.

[Austin Snelick]

Week 7 Snelick Index Power Rankings





Lots of movement again this week.
Pennsylvania remains dominant and at the top, two points better in the Snelick index than the 2nd ranked team.
The Toronto Terror, whose only loss came against Pennsylvania has jumped up to second, after another good week.
The Arizona Eagles move down one to make way for Toronto.
Memphis continues to climb, as their statistics prove better than their record.
Same goes for Norfolk, who moves up four spots.
Colorado did not play this week, which may explain their slight fall.
Wisconsin gets another win, and moves up one.
Oakland only drops one after their loss.
Washington falls a good bit after a sub par game against Norfolk.
San Antonio moves up one, despite a big win in Oakland. Even with a good record, that statistics paint San Antonio as a team doing better than they should be.
Cincinnati again makes a big move in the rankings, going up 4 this week after another solid game on defense, and another win.
Seattle drops two after their loss to Memphis.
No change for Baltimore and Miami, after their close game.
San Diego jumps 5 spots after a huge win at home.
Louisville plummets 6 spots after getting demolished at Pennsylvania (but then again most teams have been).
Dallas and Jacksonville both drop two after another loss.
No change at the bottom.

[Untitled0717]

*fixed incorrect ratings from last week

Win Division%

CIN - 2.752%
PEN - 85.052%
TOR - 9.22%
WIS - 2.976%

ATL - 5.616%
JAX - 18.834%
LOU - 3.282%
LSV - 72.268%

BAL - 12.4%
MIA - 4.016%
NOR - 33.838%
WAS - 49.746%

DAL - 1.238%
MEM - 57.576%
SA - 41.074%
STL - 0.112%

ABQ - 0.428%
ARZ - 89.276%
COL - 10.286%
LV - 0.01%

LA - 1.25%
OAK - 67.69%
SD - 11.222%
SEA - 19.838%
---------------------
#1 Seed%
PEN - 80.484%
ARZ - 72.684%
MEM - 9.494%
TOR - 8.112%
COL - 5.726%
SA - 5.642%
OAK - 5.424%
WAS - 4.49%
WIS - 2.442%
CIN - 2.244%
NOR - 1.276%
SEA - 0.456%
BAL - 0.448%
LSV - 0.446%
SD - 0.408%
ABQ - 0.152%
MIA - 0.056%
DAL - 0.008%
LA - 0.004%
JAX - 0.002%
LV - 0.002%
ATL - <0.001%
LOU - <0.001%
STL - <0.001%

***EDIT*** I just realized I forgot to update the simulation this week and it overrode the Week 7 games; this is essentially the Week 6 rankings again. The Week 8 rankings will reflect changes from Week 7 and 8.

[NeauXone]

Win Division%

ATL - 5.616%
JAX - 18.834%
LOU - 3.282%
LSV - 72.268%

Yikes, wouldn't be surprised if someone comes out of this division with a losing record.

[Austin Snelick]

Win Division%

ATL - 5.616%
JAX - 18.834%
LOU - 3.282%
LSV - 72.268%

Yikes, wouldn't be surprised if someone comes out of this division with a losing record.

Yeah, it's funny how some of these divisions shaped out. The South division just ended up being the NFC East of the GSL this year. I may change the way I do rankings next season, so that each division starts out with a minimum and maximum total ranking sum.
That of course doesn't prevent teams from getting better or worse throughout the year, since up to 4 teams get rankings changes every week. This year, those rankings changes have also changed the divisions disproportionally. By the end of the year, that should statistically level out, but who knows. I am glad through that I have seen some movement and impact up and down through weekly rankings changes, so hopefully, due to the length of the season, we see some teams who aren't so good now move up, and other teams move down to make things more competitive in the playoff races. Some divisions for sure will go down to the final weeks.

[rbronish]

[Rob Holecko]

So you're saying we have a chance!

[Austin Snelick]

Week 8 Snelick Index Power Rankings





I think the most notable move this week is the Norfolk Commanders moving up to the number 2 spot, with another win, and after beating a quality opponent in the Stags.
Arizona suffers their first loss on the season, which helped boost the Texans.

[NeauXone]

I feel like everyone's sleeping on Colorado... That's my sleeper pick to come out of the West.

[Untitled0717]

*see edit from last week


Win Division%
CIN - 2.686%
PEN - 91.06%
TOR - 5.36%
WIS - 0.894%

ATL - 2.072%
JAX - 17.858%
LOU - 2.444%
LSV - 77.626%

BAL - 6.636%
MIA - 0.802%
NOR - 60.826%
WAS - 31.736%

DAL - 0.074%
MEM - 59.178%
SA - 40.742%
STL - 0.006%

ABQ - 2.076%
ARZ - 77.74%
COL - 20.184%
LV - <0.001%

LA - 3.808%
OAK - 57.382%
SD - 8.806%
SEA - 30.004%
--------------------
#1 Seed%
PEN - 88.4%
ARZ - 54.252%
MEM - 18.602%
COL - 11.696%
SA - 11.29%
TOR - 4.502%
OAK - 2.732%
CIN - 2.326%
NOR - 2.132%
WAS - 1.894%
ABQ - 0.866%
WIS - 0.622%
SEA - 0.396%
SD - 0.142%
BAL - 0.084%
LSV - 0.04%
LA - 0.024%
ATL, JAX, LOU, MIA, DAL, STL, LV - <0.001%

[Austin Snelick]

I feel like everyone's sleeping on Colorado... That's my sleeper pick to come out of the West.

I feel like there's a lot of teams in the West that still have a legitimate shot at winning the conference. Arizona has shown some weakness, in their first loss, albeit, in a close game. But that really helped San Antonio's case. Memphis keeps playing good games, so I can see them winning. Home field will be big in the playoffs, so if Colorado can beat out Arizona in the division, that would be a big help for them. Same for Memphis and San Antonio. The winner will be in good shape. The Pacific division is interesting. If things keep going in the same trend as they have been the last few weeks, it looks like the Pacific division winner will be the only team from that division to make the playoffs. Seattle still has a shot at that division, and maybe a wild card spot, but I think that will depend more on other teams. The Pacific division does get some help, in that they play the South division in the East, which has been pretty weak this year. The other team in the West not to sleep on is the Atoms, who have kind have snuck back up to .500 this weekend, and they have the #1 scoring offense in the league right now.

In the East, Pennsylvania has just been dominating most games. Will they go undefeated? I don't think so, but I wouldn't rule it out. I think there are some matchups that could be tough for them. They play Wisconsin twice, San Antonio on the road could be a tight one, they play Toronto again, although at home this time. Later in the season, there's an away game at Washington, and at Cincinnati. Both teams have been decent, but them being at home could make a difference.

As for the rest of the Eastern conference playoffs, I think there's a lot of possibilities out there. The Keystones really have the best shot at the #1 seed the way they've been playing, but the rest of their division is all teams above .500, and each team in that division still has 4 divisional games left to play, so who knows, it's possible the Keystones don't win that division. I can see any North division team taking a wild card spot. The South division has been a mess, and pretty weak. Atlanta and Louisiana have been at the bottom of the rankings all year, and have been beaten pretty badly in a lot of games. Not sure they have a shot at the division, now down 3 wins to the Lightning. The Captains could be the only team to challenge the Lightning in the South, especially since they have a head to head win against the Lightning. They will have to beat the Lightning in the second game later this season if they want to have a shot at the division I think. The East division should be interesting. Norfolk and Washington both had really good wins this week. The Commanders are on a 3 game win streak, and beat Washington in their first matchup this season. Baltimore has some work to do to catch up. Their loss this week really hurt them in the wild card race, and set them back in their division.

[rbronish]

[NeauXone]

Week 8's playoff picture!

[Austin Snelick]

Week 9 Snelick index power rankings





I realized I had not been calculating some things correctly over the past 2 weeks, so some movement may be based on my fixing of that problem.


At the top, we see the usual suspects.
Norfolks drop is mostly due to good wins by Arizona, Memphis, and Colorado.
Toronto drops a couple spots with their loss.
Oakland got the big overtime win last night, and that helps them move up this week.
Washington somehow moved up two slots. The calculations put them there, and maybe that's based on their number 1 scoring defense.
San Antonio drops 4 spots after their loss, that knocked them out of first place in their division.
Louisville jumped 4 spots with a good win over Washington.
Albuquerque dropped 3 after their overtime loss.
The Outlaws move up 3 spots with a big win.
The Breakers drop 4 after a big loss.
The bottom feeders shuffled around slightly.

[Untitled0717]

Win Division%
CIN - 4.518%
PEN - 91.964%
TOR - 2.322%
WIS - 1.196%

ATL - 0.822%
JAX - 7.476%
LOU - 0.958%
LSV - 90.744%

BAL - 11.046%
MIA - 1.002%
NOR - 69.028%
WAS - 18.924%

DAL - 0.036%
MEM - 80.748%
SA - 19.206%
STL - 0.01%

ABQ - 0.464%
ARZ - 74.784%
COL - 24.752%
LV - <0.001%

LA - 1.876%
OAK - 73.888%
SD - 2.938%
SEA - 21.298%
--------------------

#1 Seed%
PEN - 89.876%
ARZ - 54.138%
MEM - 22.658%
COL - 15.078%
OAK - 4.65%
CIN - 3.89%
SA - 3.336%
NOR - 2.58%
TOR - 1.878%
WIS - 0.888%
WAS - 0.638%
BAL - 0.148%
LSV - 0.102%
ABQ - 0.088%
SEA - 0.044%
LA - 0.004%
SD - 0.004%
ATL, JAX, LOU, MIA, DAL, STL, LV - <0.001%

[rbronish]

Week 9 Snelick index power rankings

I realized I had not been calculating some things correctly over the past 2 weeks, so some movement may be based on my fixing of that problem.
...
Norfolk's drop is mostly due to good wins by Arizona, Memphis, and Colorado.

I knew it was too good to be true for us to be at 2. Meanwhile, here's where we're at.

[Austin Snelick]

Weekly Wins Chart

[NeauXone]

Halfway through the season, here's our top 5 QB ladder:

I extrapolated recent stats from the simmed games to try and put together a half season's worth of statistics for each QB. Might do this with the rest of the QBs but I'll definitely be doing this to put together an MVP race very soon.

[Austin Snelick]

Halfway through the season, here's our top 5 QB ladder:

I extrapolated recent stats from the simmed games to try and put together a half season's worth of statistics for each QB. Might do this with the rest of the QBs but I'll definitely be doing this to put together an MVP race very soon.

Awesome!

I'll have to figure out a good way to store stats for next season. I still haven't quite gotten the simulation figured out, although I have lots of good data now. The hardest part is decision making (when should teams go for it on 4th down, when should they kick a field goal / punt, things like that), and assigning team strengths will also be difficult, because strengths will have to be determined on a play by play basis, and not on the entire game as a whole. So, I'm not sure if by the 2022 season I'll have that figured out or not. May have to be something for the 2023 season.

[Austin Snelick]

Week 10 Snelick Index Power Rankings



Some changes near the top, with both Arizona and Colorado losing this week. Memphis moves up to 2, and Norfolk moves up to 3.
The biggest jump of the week was Baltimore, who jumped 3 slots to 10.
No other big changes this week, with 6 teams on bye.

Weekly Wins Chart

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