2022 Playoff Scenario Thread

[rbronish]

2022 Week 14 Playoff Picture

Clinching Scenarios

East

BOS clinches playoff berth with:
      1) BOS win + BIR loss

West

STL clinches Heartland division title with:
      1) STL win + MEM loss

Elimination Scenarios

East

MIA is knocked out of Atlantic division title contention with:
      1) MIA loss + CAR win

BAL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) BAL loss + CIN win

West

SA is knocked out of South division title contention with:
      1) SA loss
OR 2) ARZ win

MEM is knocked out of Heartland division title contention with:
      1) MEM loss + STL win

VAN is eliminated from playoff contention* with:
      1) VAN loss + SL win
OR 2) VAN loss + DAL win

*Vancouver still remains alive for Pacific Division title

Teams clinched playoff berth:
None

Teams clinched division title:
None

Teams knocked out of division title contention:
BAL (11), COL (13), KC (13), WAS (13)

Teams eliminated from playoff contention:
None

[rbronish]

Notes after early games

Miami will be knocked out of division title contention with a loss at Albuquerque.

Saint Louis can not clinch a division title this week.

A Cincinnati win will eliminate Baltimore from playoff contention.

San Antonio will remain alive for division title contention with a win.

[rbronish]

After 4:30 games

Miami has been knocked out of division title contention.

Saint Louis is one win or Memphis loss away from a division title.

Boston will clinch a playoff spot with a Birmingham loss tonight.

Baltimore is safe from elimination for one more week.

Vancouver is eliminated from playoff contention.

[rbronish]

With Birmingham’s loss the Boston Bobcats are the first to clinch a playoff berth.

[Austin Snelick]

Thanks for keeping up with these!
I've updated the standings tables for playoffs / eliminated teams.

[Austin Snelick]

With clinching scenarios starting to pop up, I want to remind owners that you can rest players to avoid injury before the playoffs.
You'd just have to tell me if you want to rest offensive and/or defensive key players for a week, and that makes your team immune to losing any strengths before the playoffs. In the simulation, I will adjust the rosters to sit the normal starters.

[Austin Snelick]

San Antonio will remain alive for division title contention with a win.

Doing some other math, the Texans would still be alive for a wild card spot, even with a loss tonight, although they would be mathematically eliminated from the winning the division.

San Diego and Salt Lake play each other, meaning one of those teams is guaranteed 9 wins.
Memphis and Dallas play each other, meaning one of those teams in guaranteed 8 wins.
Salt Lake and Memphis play each other, and depending on what happens in the above games, is what effects San Antonio.

The best case for the Texans is that Memphis loses out, Dallas only beats Memphis and loses their remaining games. San Diego and Salt Lake would be in at this point, and Memphis would finish with 7 wins, and Dallas with 8, but, the Texans would finish with 8 wins, and a better division record than the Regulators. San Antonio would also need other teams to stay below 8 wins, or at least, 8 wins with less than 7 conference wins.

[Austin Snelick]

Doing some more math, I believe Baltimore is eliminated (practically, but not mathematically). Their best case scenario means Cincinnati MUST lose the rest of their games, which includes losses to both Toronto and Pennsylvania. That means Toronto OR Pennsylvania is guaranteed 7 wins in this scenario. Baltimore has lost to both Toronto and Pennsylvania, but, there would be at least a 3 way tie if we get to this point, so conference record would be the tie break. In the best case, Toronto would be the 7 win team, and the tie break would have Baltimore and Toronto tied for conference record, with Cincinnati being eliminated at this point. That gets us back to a two team tie between Baltimore and Toronto, which Toronto has the head to head tie breaker, eliminating Baltimore.

Now, as I've just completed writing all this, I'm remembering one important thing. Toronto and Pennsylvania can tie, and that's Baltimore's in. So I guess they are not mathematically eliminated at this point, although it is extremely unlikely, especially given the Bluebirds remaining schedule.

[rbronish]

2022 Week 15 Playoff Picture

Clinching Scenarios

East

NY clinches playoff berth with:
      1) NY win + BIR loss + JAX loss + ATL loss

West

STL clinches Heartland division title with:
      1) STL win
OR 2) MEM loss

Elimination Scenarios

East

MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) MIA loss + CIN win

BAL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) BAL loss
OR 2) CIN win

West

MEM is knocked out of Heartland division title contention with:
      1) MEM loss
OR 2) STL win

VAN is knocked out of Pacific division title contention with:
      1) VAN loss
OR 2) OAK win

COL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) COL loss + SL win

POR is eliminated from wild card contention with:
      1) POR loss + SD win + SL win

KC is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) KC loss + SD win + SL win

SA is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) SA loss
OR 2) SD win + SL win

Teams clinched playoff berth:
BOS (14)

Teams clinched division title:
None

Teams knocked out of division title contention:
BAL (11), COL (13), KC (13), WAS (13)
MIA (14), SA (14)

Teams eliminated from playoff contention:
VAN (14)

[rbronish]

With their win over Salt Lake, the Saint Louis Brewers are Heartland division champions.

Salt Lake’s loss keeps Colorado, Portland and Kansas City safe from elimination.

[rbronish]

2022 Week 16 Playoff Picture

Clinching Scenarios

East

BOS clinches home field advantage throughout Eastern Conference playoffs with:
      1) BOS win + NY loss + LSV loss + LOU loss

BOS clinches East division title with:
      1) BOS win + NY loss

NY clinches playoff berth with:
      1) NY win

LSV clinches playoff berth with:
      1) LSV win
OR 2) ATL loss + BIR loss + JAX loss + CHI loss + TOR loss

LOU clinches playoff berth with:
      1) LOU win

West

STL clinches home field advantage throughout Western Conference playoffs with:
      1) STL win + LA loss + LV loss

OAK clinches Pacific division title with:
      1) OAK win + SEA loss

Elimination Scenarios

East

NY is knocked out of East division title contention with:
      1) NY loss + BOS win

CIN is knocked out of Central division title contention with:
      1) CIN loss

BIR is knocked out of Central division title contention with:
      1) BIR loss
OR 2) LSV win

MIA is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) MIA loss
OR 2) CIN win

BAL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) BAL loss
OR 2) CIN win

West

SEA is knocked out of Pacific division title contention with:
      1) SEA loss + OAK win

POR is knocked out of Pacific division title contention with:
      1) POR loss
OR 2) OAK win

ABQ is knocked out of South division title contention with:
      1) ABQ loss + ARZ win

SEA is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) SEA loss + SL win
OR 2) SEA loss + MEM win
OR 3)SEA loss + DAL win

COL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) COL loss
OR 2) SL win
OR 3) MEM win
OR 4) DAL win

SA is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) SA loss
OR 2) SL win
OR 3) MEM win
OR 4) DAL win

POR is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) POR loss
OR 2) SL win
OR 3) MEM win
OR 4) DAL win

KC is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) KC loss
OR 2) SL win
OR 3) MEM win
OR 4) DAL win

Teams clinched playoff berth:
BOS (14)

Teams clinched division title:
STL (15)

Teams knocked out of division title contention:
BAL (11), COL (13), KC (13), WAS (13)
MIA (14), SA (14), MEM (15), VAN (15)

Teams eliminated from playoff contention:
VAN (14)

[NeauXone]

Wouldn't a win OR an ATL/BIR/JAX/CHI/TOR loss get us into the playoffs? Because at that point, if we were to win, the most wins those teams could finish with is 10 and we'd have 11.

[rbronish]

Wouldn't a win OR an ATL/BIR/JAX/CHI/TOR loss get us into the playoffs? Because at that point, if we were to win, the most wins those teams could finish with is 10 and we'd have 11.

Yes, you’re right. I have updated LSV as well as NY and LOU.

[Austin Snelick]

Wouldn't a win OR an ATL/BIR/JAX/CHI/TOR loss get us into the playoffs? Because at that point, if we were to win, the most wins those teams could finish with is 10 and we'd have 11.

Seems like a win will be the easier route, rather than hoping 5 other teams all lose haha.
The Royals and CityHawks should have the same OR scenario, since they have the same number of wins as the Lightning at this point (although, the probability of all 5 teams losing is extremely low, about 3% if the win probabilities were all 50%, as a quick estimate, but this scenario doesn't even factor in that the Lightning, or the other two 10-4 teams would also have to lose for the scenario to even apply).

[Austin Snelick]

I haven't gotten to updating the standings tables with clinches and such yet, but I should be able to this afternoon or tomorrow. Still have to catch up on other things after the holiday weekend.

[rbronish]

Wouldn't a win OR an ATL/BIR/JAX/CHI/TOR loss get us into the playoffs? Because at that point, if we were to win, the most wins those teams could finish with is 10 and we'd have 11.

Seems like a win will be the easier route, rather than hoping 5 other teams all lose haha.
The Royals and CityHawks should have the same OR scenario, since they have the same number of wins as the Lightning at this point (although, the probability of all 5 teams losing is extremely low, about 3% if the win probabilities were all 50%, as a quick estimate, but this scenario doesn't even factor in that the Lightning, or the other two 10-4 teams would also have to lose for the scenario to even apply).

The reason New York and Louisiana don't have OR scenarios is because they play against Atlanta and Birmingham respectively.

While we're on the explanations, you might notice that Albuquerque can be knocked out with a loss and Arizona win even though the Atoms are only two games behind. It all comes down to the Eagles' 4-0 division record. If they both finish 10-8, Arizona will have a 4-2 division record vs 'Querque's 3-3. But what about a 3-way tie with Dallas? In order for Dallas to also finish 10-8, it requires them to win against Arizona which will give them at least 3 division wins too.

[rbronish]

Here's a summary of what the Lightning win over the Knights accomplished

Boston cannot clinch the East #1 seed this week
Louisville clinched a playoff berth
Cincinnati and Birmingham are knocked out of Central division title contention
Miami and Baltimore are still lurking

[rbronish]

I looked closer at the tiebreaks for St. Louis vs Los Angeles and Las Vegas. At this point the Brewers and the West champion can end up at 14-4. St. Louis has beat Las Vegas head to head, so only Los Angeles has to lose for the Brewers to clinch HFA. Does anyone concur?

[Austin Snelick]

I looked closer at the tiebreaks for St. Louis vs Los Angeles and Las Vegas. At this point the Brewers and the West champion can end up at 14-4. St. Louis has beat Las Vegas head to head, so only Los Angeles has to lose for the Brewers to clinch HFA. Does anyone concur?

Yep, that's what I was thinking. Brewers can have the 1 seed wrapped up by the end of the day with an LA loss.

[rbronish]

Clinches and eliminations before SNF

STL-clinch home field advantage throughout Western Conference playoffs
LSV-clinch playoff berth
NY-clinch playoff berth
LOU-clinch playoff berth
OAK-clinch Pacific division title
BAL-eliminated from playoff contention
KC-eliminated from playoff contention
POR-knocked out of division title contention and eliminated from playoff contention
SA-eliminated from playoff contention
COL-eliminated from playoff contention
SEA-knocked out of division title contention and eliminated from playoff contention
CIN-knocked out of division title contention
BIR-knocked out of division title contention
ABQ-knocked out of division title contention

[Austin Snelick]

Clinches and eliminations before SNF

STL-clinch home field advantage throughout Western Conference playoffs
LSV-clinch playoff berth
NY-clinch playoff berth
LOU-clinch playoff berth
OAK-clinch Pacific division title
BAL-eliminated from playoff contention
KC-eliminated from playoff contention
POR-knocked out of division title contention and eliminated from playoff contention
SA-eliminated from playoff contention
COL-eliminated from playoff contention
SEA-knocked out of division title contention and eliminated from playoff contention
CIN-knocked out of division title contention
BIR-knocked out of division title contention
ABQ-knocked out of division title contention

Finally a week where a lot happened playoff wise.
I'll get the standings sheet updated.

[rbronish]

2022 Week 17 Playoff Picture

Clinching Scenarios

East

BOS clinches home field advantage throughout Eastern Conference playoffs with:
      1) BOS win
OR 2) NY loss + LSV loss + LOU loss

BOS clinches East division title with:
      1) BOS win
OR 2) NY loss

CAR clinches Atlantic division title with:
      1) CAR win

West

ARZ clinches South division title with:
      1) ARZ win

LA clinches playoff berth with:
      1) LA win + MEM/SL tie

LV clinches playoff berth with:
      1) LV win + MEM/SL tie

SD clinches playoff berth with:
      1) SD win + MEM/SL tie

Elimination Scenarios

East

NY is knocked out of East division title contention with:
      1) NY loss
OR 2) BOS win

JAX is knocked out of Atlantic division title contention with:
      1) JAX loss

ATL is knocked out of Atlantic division title contention with:
      1) ATL loss
OR 2) CAR win

West

SL is knocked out of Pacific division title contention with:
      1) SL loss + LA win
OR 2) SL loss + LV win
OR 3) SL loss + SD win

ABQ is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) ABQ loss + DAL win

Teams clinched playoff berth:
BOS (14), STL (15), LSV(16), NY (16)
OAK (16), LOU (16)

Teams clinched division title:
STL (15), OAK (16)

Teams knocked out of division title contention:
BAL (11), COL (13), KC (13), WAS (13)
MIA (14), SA (14), MEM (15), VAN (15)
CIN (16), BIR (16), POR (16), SEA (16)
ABQ (16)

Teams eliminated from playoff contention:
VAN (14), BAL (16), KC (16), POR (16)
SA (16), COL (16), SEA (16), MIA (16)

[Untitled0717]

LA clinches playoff berth with:
      1) LA win + MEM loss + SL loss

LV clinches playoff berth with:
      1) LV win + MEM loss + SL loss

SD clinches playoff berth with:
      1) SD win + MEM loss + SL loss

Considering Memphis and Salt Lake are playing each other this week, we could still tie and the criteria would be met.

[rbronish]

Considering Memphis and Salt Lake are playing each other this week, we could still tie and the criteria would be met.

Updated post to show MEM/SL tie, even if it's nearly impossible

[Drew Abernathy]

The Pacific Division (is that right?) is logjammed!

[Austin Snelick]

The Pacific Division (is that right?) is logjammed!

Oakland has won the Pacific division.
It's the West division that is logjammed, and could possibly send all 4 teams to the playoffs depending on how the season ends.

[rbronish]

Pennsylvania is knocked out of division contention; this is because they lose a 3-way tie at 8-10 with Toronto and Chicago based on division record.

If Boston clinches the 1 seed in the East, the Central division champion will be locked into the 2 seed; this is because both Louisiana and Louisville beat Carolina head-to-head.

Washington is eliminated from playoff contention; this is because Cincinnati beats Washington based on conference record (CIN worst 6-8 vs WAS best 5-9).

Albuquerque is eliminated from playoff contention; this is because either Salt Lake or Dallas beats Albuquerque based on conference record (SL worst 8-6, DAL worst 7-7 vs ABQ best 6-8 ).

[Austin Snelick]

Pennsylvania is knocked out of division contention; this is because they lose a 3-way tie at 8-10 with Toronto and Chicago based on division record.

If Boston clinches the 1 seed in the East, the Central division champion will be locked into the 2 seed; this is because both Louisiana and Louisville beat Carolina head-to-head.

Washington is eliminated from playoff contention; this is because Cincinnati beats Washington based on conference record (CIN worst 6-8 vs WAS best 5-9).

Albuquerque is eliminated from playoff contention; this is because either Salt Lake or Dallas beats Albuquerque based on conference record (SL worst 8-6, DAL worst 7-7 vs ABQ best 6-8 ).

Thanks for the update.
I'll add, Carolina could end up as the 4 seed if they lose two in a row, and Toronto wins two in a row.

So after last night's game, Boston has clinched the 1 seed, and New York will be a wild card team (seed pending).

[rbronish]

2022 Week 18 Playoff Picture

Clinching Scenarios

East

TOR clinches North division title with:
      1) TOR win

LOU clinches Central division title with:
      1) LOU win + LSV loss

CIN clinches playoff berth with:
      1) CIN win + CHI loss + BIR loss + ATL loss

West

LA clinches playoff berth with:
      1) LA win
OR 2) SL loss
OR 3) DAL loss

LV clinches playoff berth with:
      1) LV win
OR 2) DAL loss

SD clinches playoff berth with:
      1) SD win
OR 2) SL loss
OR 3) DAL loss

Elimination Scenarios

East

LSV is knocked out of Central division title contention with:
      1) LSV loss + LOU win

CHI is knocked out of North division title contention with:
      1) CHI loss

WIS is knocked out of North division title contention with:
      1) WIS loss
OR 2) TOR win

CHI is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) CHI loss + CIN win

BIR is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) BIR loss + CIN win

ATL is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) ATL loss + CIN win

WIS is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) WIS loss
OR 2) CIN win

PEN is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) PEN loss
OR 2) CIN win

JAX is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) JAX loss
OR 2) CIN win

West

SL is knocked out of West division title contention with:
      1) SL loss
OR 2) LA win
OR 3) SD win

MEM is eliminated from playoff contention with:
      1) MEM loss

Teams clinched playoff berth:
BOS (14), STL (15), LSV(16), NY (16)
OAK (16), LOU (16), ARZ (17), CAR (17)

Teams clinched division title:
STL (15), OAK (16), ARZ (17), CAR (17)  
BOS (17)

Teams knocked out of division title contention:
BAL (11), COL (13), KC (13), WAS (13)
MIA (14), SA (14), MEM (15), VAN (15)
CIN (16), BIR (16), POR (16), SEA (16)
ABQ (16), DAL (17), JAX (17), ATL (17)
PEN (17), NY (17)

Teams eliminated from playoff contention:
VAN (14), BAL (16), KC (16), POR (16)
SA (16), COL (16), SEA (16), MIA (16)
WAS (17), ABQ (17)

[Drew Abernathy]

So that's all Salt Lake needs to do.

No pressure

[rbronish]

2022 Week 19 Playoff Picture

Clinching Scenarios

East

CHI clinches North division title with:
      1) CHI win
OR 2) TOR loss

TOR clinches North division title with:
      1) TOR win + CHI loss

LOU clinches Central division title with:
      1) LOU win
OR 2) LSV loss

LSV clinches Central division title with:
      1) LSV win + LOU loss

CIN clinches playoff berth with:
      1) CIN win
OR 2) TOR loss

TOR clinches playoff berth with:
      1) TOR win + CIN loss

West

LV clinches West division title with:
      1) LV win
OR 2) SD loss

SD clinches West division title with:
      1) SD win + LV loss

DAL clinches playoff berth with:
      1) DAL win
OR 2) SL loss

SL clinches playoff berth with:
      1) SL win + DAL loss

I would like to nominate LOU/CIN as the SNF game since a division title for Louisiana and a playoff berth for Cincinnati are on the line

[Austin Snelick]

I would like to nominate LOU/CIN as the SNF game since a division title for Louisiana and a playoff berth for Cincinnati are on the line

I don't think I will be moving any games to Sunday night in week 19.

What I'd like is a guaranteed win and in scenario. Or, basically, what I don't want, is for either of the two teams in the night game to have nothing to play for.
If Chicago OR Toronto lose Sunday, then Cincinnati has nothing to play for, as they will have the wild card slot. If the Lightning lose, then the Royals would have nothing to play for, as they'd have the 2 seed.

So, no schedule changes for week 19.

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