Week 11 - 2024

Week 11 of the GSL is setting the stage for pivotal clashes that could reshape the playoff landscape. Highlighting the week is the intense matchup between the Toronto Terror, who currently lead their division with a 6-3 record, and the New York City Hawks, holding a close 5-4 record. This game is particularly critical as Toronto looks to maintain its edge over the closely trailing Montreal Maroons (5-5), while New York aims to improve their standing in a tight divisional race, making this contest a potential determinant in the wildcard seeding.

Another compelling storyline this week is the "Tank Bowl" of the season, featuring the league's struggling teams, the Wisconsin Stags and the Pennsylvania Keystones, both sitting at 1-8. This game could very well decide who gets the first pick in the 2025 draft, adding a layer of intrigue to what might otherwise be overlooked.

The late Sunday window also promises to shake up the wildcard race in the Western Conference, with key games like the Arizona Eagles (5-4) visiting the Portland Samurais (4-5), and the Las Vegas Outlaws (4-5) facing off against the Albuquerque Atoms (6-4). The outcomes of these games could lead to a major reshuffling in the conference standings, intensifying the battle for playoff spots.

Capping off the weekend, Sunday night features a clash between two positive-record teams in the Western Conference, as the Seattle Sockeyes (5-4) visit the Kansas City Buffaloes. This matchup could preview a potential playoff showdown, adding an extra layer of anticipation to the week's proceedings.

As we head into Week 11, the stakes are high, and the outcomes of these games could be crucial in defining the road to the GSL playoffs.

Saturday, April 27, 2024 - 8:15PM
San Diego @ Vancouver
Line: -1.5 VAN
O/U: 42.0
Win PCT: 53.0% VAN

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 1:00PM
Jacksonville @ Atlanta
Line: -6.5 ATL
O/U: 41.5
Win PCT: 63.2% ATL

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 1:00PM
Toronto @ New York
Line: -1.5 TOR
O/U: 42.0
Win PCT: 53.4% TOR

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 1:00PM
Wisconsin @ Pennsylvania
Line: -1.5 WIS
O/U: 38.0
Win PCT: 52.8% WIS

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 2:00PM
Detroit @ Louisiana
Line: -0.5 DET
O/U: 45.5
Win PCT: 50.6% DET

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 2:00PM
Los Angeles @ Louisville
Line: -15.0 LSV
O/U: 41.5
Win PCT: 80.0% LSL

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 2:00PM
St Louis @ Minnesota
Line: -5.5 STL
O/U: 45.5
Win PCT: 61.2% STL

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 3:15PM
Las Vegas @ Albuquerque
Line: -8.5 ABQ
O/U: 46.0
Win PCT: 67.4 ABQ

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 3:15PM
Memphis @ Colorado
Line: -0.5 MEM
O/U: 44.5
Win PCT: 50.2% MEM

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 4:30PM
Arizona @ Portland
Line: -2.0 ARZ
O/U: 38.0
Win PCT: 54.2% ARZ

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 4:30PM
Baltimore @ Atlanta
Line: -2.0 ATL
O/U: 43.0
Win PCT: 53.5% ATL

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 4:30PM
Houston @ Birmingham
Line: -8.5 HOU
O/U: 48.5
Win PCT: 66.8% HOU

Sunday, April 28, 2024 - 8:15PM
Seattle @ Kansas City
Line: -3.0 SEA
O/U: 49.0
Win PCT: 55.6% SEA

Monday, April 29, 2024 - 8:15PM
Miami @ Salt Lake
Line: -3.5 Salt Lake
O/U: 47.5
Win PCT: 56.8% SL

Favoured again?! If the Aliens win this game at Sanford Field we’ll be 2-0 at Sanford and who knows maybe they’ll play more games at Sanford next year lol

Our season is over but it would be nice to win one and this is a good af week as any

I just noticed that both Birmingham teams are playing in Houston, lol. Let's hope the Owls can pull an upset against Halos

Not a good look, the first shutout in franchise history.

Wow Apparently yellow jersey luck is real, we are 3-0 this season when we wear it! Maybe I will promote it to primary uniform

I swear Atlanta would be 8-2 or 7-3 if the team actually won games we were favoured in

CanadianBacon43 wrote:I swear Atlanta would be 8-2 or 7-3 if the team actually won games we were favoured in

The calculations are based on the Aliens' real-life counterparts in the NFL stats (Such as PPG, OPPG etc)
Here is a brief "Behind the Scenes" that shows how some of the lines and odd are drawn.

Let’s calculate the expected spread, over/under, and winning percentage for the game between the Team A and the Team B based on their average points per game (PPG) and points allowed per game (OPPG).

### Teams' Performance Data:

**Team A:**
- **Points Per Game (PPG):** 26.6
- **Opponent Points Per Game (OPPG):** 18.7

**Team B:**
- **Points Per Game (PPG):** 21.0
- **Opponent Points Per Game (OPPG):** 24.3

### Calculations:

1. **Spread Calculation:**
- The spread indicates the expected difference in score between the two teams.
- **Formula:** \( \text{Spread} = \text{Team A PPG} - \text{Team B PPG} \)

2. **Over/Under Calculation:**
- This value estimates the total points scored by both teams combined in the game.
- **Formula:** \( \text{Over/Under} = \left( \frac{\text{Team A PPG} + \text{Team B PPG}}{2} \right) + \left( \frac{\text{Team A OPPG} + \text{Team B OPPG}}{2} \right) \)

3. **Winning Percentage for Team A (Simplified Estimate):**
- Based on the spread, calculate the probability of Team A winning using a simplified model where each point in the spread accounts for a 2% increase in the probability of winning, starting from a base of 50%.
- **Adjustment due to the spread:** \( \text{Spread} \times 2\% \)
- **Winning Percentage:** \( 50\% + \text{(Spread Adjustment)} \)

MY GOSH WE'RE TANKING!!! If I hadn't already pledged to do another Polynesian Cultural night, we'd be going back to white uniforms next week.